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The Odds
There are only 36 possible combinations of numbers that
can be rolled with a pair of dice. How interesting... say "Pair of Dice"
- Sounds a lot like "Paradise", doesn't it? Well, a pair of dice can be
paradise if you know what to do with them and follow the FOUR PILLARS
OF MENTAL MANAGEMENT - Education, Self-Control, Discipline, and Money
Management.
This section
will briefly and non-technically discuss the odds (probability) of rolling
any possible number with a set of two dice. We'll use a chart to illustrate
these probabilities.
|
NUMBER
|
COMBINATIONS
|
PROBABILITY
|
NUMBER
|
COMBINATIONS
|
PROBABILITY
|
|
2
|
1
|
2.78%
|
12
|
1
|
2.78%
|
|
3
|
2
|
5.56%
|
11
|
2
|
5.56%
|
|
4
|
3
|
8.33%
|
10
|
3
|
8.33%
|
|
5
|
4
|
11.11%
|
9
|
4
|
11.11%
|
|
6
|
5
|
13.89%
|
8
|
5
|
13.89%
|
|
7
|
6
|
16.67%
|
TOTAL
|
36
|
100%
|
Let's look
at this another way.
So, we see
that the most likely number is a 7, with 6 and 8 next most likely, 5 and
9 following in probability, then 4 and 10, 3 and 11, and least likely
is 2 and 12.
What does
this mean to you? It means that one time out of almost every 6 rolls;
you will roll a 7, once out of every 7+ rolls, you'll have a 6 or 8 appear;
once out of every 9 rolls, you'll see a 5 or 9, once out of every 11+
rolls you'll see a 4 or 10, once out of every 18 rolls, you'll see a 3
or 11, and once out of every 36 rolls, you'll see a 2 or 12.
How are these
probabilities derived? Let's take the 7. Assume you have a white die and
a red die. To get a seven you have all these combinations: RED -1, WHITE-6;
RED-2, WHITE -5; RED-3, WHITE-4, RED-4, WHITE-3; RED-5, WHITE-2; RED-6,
WHITE-1.
To roll a
2 or 12, you only have 1 way for each number. RED-1, WHITE-1 for 2; RED-6,
WHITE-6 for 12.
The chance
of hitting a 7 (the most likely number) is 6 times more likely than a
2. Now think a bit about the chances of rolling a Hard-way bet like hard
4, hard 10, etc. One chance in 36, just like a 2 or a 12!
When we discuss
my Mental Management System, you will see that I normally (especially
for inexperienced crapshooters) do not recommend these high-risk bets.
Now you know the reason!
Winning is
based upon maximizing your odds and minimizing the casino's edge. Under
normal circumstances, you put the casino's hand in your pocket and hand
your bankroll over by placing the low percentage bets.
Don't be
fooled, be smart.
Copyright
© 2001 TMC Gaming, LLC and TeachMeCraps.com
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